Turkey is gearing up for a strong season for durum wheat: production and stocks are at high levels

Speaking at the 11th International Conference on Cereals in Turkey and the World: Towards the 2026 Harvest, organised by HUBUDER in Ankara, Aykut Göymen, President of the Turkish Pasta Manufacturers’ Association, provided an up-to-date assessment of the durum wheat market in Turkey and globally. The data shared revealed that Turkey is entering the 2026/27 season with strong production and high stock levels.

It was noted that pasta wheat production in Turkey is expected to reach 4.1 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season. This figure represents an increase of approximately 592,000 tonnes compared to the previous season. Whilst highlighting the rise in production, it was emphasised that stock levels have also reached notable levels, with end-of-season durum wheat stocks forecast at 1,309,000 tonnes. It was noted that this amount corresponds to approximately twice the average of recent years.

It was stated that Turkey’s total demand for durum wheat stands at 3.75 million tonnes, with 2.5 million tonnes consumed by the pasta industry and 1.25 million tonnes by the bulgur and baklava sectors. It was assessed that the current production and stock figures point to a robust supply structure capable of meeting domestic market needs.

The speech also touched upon Turkey’s export performance in the pasta sector, emphasising that the country maintains a strong position in the global market. It was noted that Turkey exported 1,447,000 tonnes of pasta in 2024 and 1,435,000 tonnes in 2025, whilst an increase in domestic consumption was also highlighted. Accordingly, domestic consumption, which stood at 630,000 tonnes in 2024, rose to 700,000 tonnes in 2025.

It was noted that the pasta industry’s production capacity has also reached a significant level, with the total installed capacity of pasta factories operating in Turkey recorded as 3.5 million tonnes as of 2026.

In assessments regarding the global durum wheat market, it was stated that a decline in global production is expected for the 2026/27 season. It was reported that the largest production losses are forecast in Canada, the European Union, the US, Italy and Russia; whilst Turkey, Mexico and Algeria are among the countries expected to see an increase in production.

However, it was noted that a supply shortage is not expected in the global market, with the assessment that “Although a decline in global production is anticipated, there does not appear to be a significant supply shortfall in the global durum wheat market due to high carryover stocks.”

It was reported that end-of-season global durum wheat stocks are expected to reach 6,515,000 tonnes in the 2026/27 season; this figure is approximately 37 per cent above the long-term average.

It was emphasised that the most important factor determining price trends in the new season will not be solely production volume, but that quality factors will come to the fore. It was stated that, particularly for crops in Canada, Turkey and Europe, protein content and hardness values would play a decisive role in price formation and industrialists’ purchasing preferences within the durum wheat trade.

Whilst it was assessed that Turkey is entering the new season with an advantage due to its strong production and stock structure, it was noted that a balanced outlook in the global durum wheat market is set to continue despite the decline in global production.