Global Supply and Demand Outlook for Maize and Global Production Conditions

It is reported that maize usage in the 2026/27 season has declined to a limited extent compared with the previous forecast, and that this change is primarily due to a fall in other areas of usage. Whilst there is no significant change in maize trade on a monthly basis, volumes are forecast to reach record levels, supported by strong demand and ample supply from Argentina, as well as high carry-over stocks in Brazil and Ukraine. Stocks at the end of 2027 are expected to increase from largely unchanged opening levels. Upwards revisions have been made to stock forecasts for China and the US this month.

According to AMIS data, whilst the maize harvest is progressing in the southern hemisphere, drought conditions are developing in some parts of the northern hemisphere. In Brazil, the harvest of spring-sown maize – considered the ‘small season’ – is nearing completion, whilst the harvest of summer-sown maize – the ‘large season’ – is beginning. In Argentina, the harvest of late-sown maize from the ‘small season’ is progressing under favourable conditions. In the US, emergence and tillering are reported to be good, whilst in Canada, conditions are favourable and emergence is good.

Global Production Conditions and Prices

In Mexico, the harvest of autumn-winter maize—the ‘small season’—is continuing, whilst the sowing of spring-summer maize—the ‘main season’—is underway. In China, conditions are favourable for the spring maize of the ‘main season’, whilst the sowing of summer maize—the ‘small season’—is continuing. In India, the sowing of the major Kharif maize season is beginning under mixed conditions due to the slow progress of the South-West Monsoon. In Indonesia, the harvest of the wet-season maize is nearing completion, whilst the sowing of the dry-season maize continues. In the European Union, whilst conditions in south-eastern Europe are improving, it is reported that heatwaves in Western Europe could adversely affect yields. In Ukraine, whilst general conditions are favourable, the soil is dry in the eastern and western regions; in the Russian Federation, conditions are reported to be favourable.

In terms of policy developments, on 11 June, the Argentine Ministry of Economy authorised the commercial use of a new transgenic maize variety offering greater protection against certain pests via Decision No. 80/2026.

According to international price developments reported by AMIS, global maize export prices continued to fall in June. The IGC maize sub-index fell by 3 per cent month-on-month, reaching its lowest level in eight months. US prices weakened due to generally positive production expectations in the Midwest and increased competition from South America. In Argentina, FOB prices fell under pressure from the harvest, whilst the recent slowdown in domestic product movement limited the overall losses. In Brazil, seasonal factors came into play with the start of the harvest of the second crop, known as ‘safrinha’ maize. In Ukraine, prices also fell to lower levels, with attention drawn to the particularly weak demand from Turkey and Egypt.